The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously on April 16, 2026 to hold the federal funds target range at 4.00%-4.25%, unchanged since the January meeting. The real news was the updated Summary of Economic Projections: the median dot now shows two 25-basis-point cuts in 2026, versus one in the December SEP.
Mortgage market reaction
The 30-year fixed conforming mortgage dropped to 6.42% from 6.58% the prior week — Freddie Mac's first sub-6.50% print since November. For a $400,000 loan, that's about $41/month off the payment, or roughly $15,000 saved over the life of the loan.
If you locked at 7%+ in 2024 and have been waiting to refinance, the breakeven math is getting interesting. Our US Mortgage Calculator lets you model scenarios with different rates and closing costs — a typical refi needs 50-75bp of improvement to pencil out inside 30 months.
What Chair Powell said
At the press conference, Powell emphasized that the Committee is "data-dependent, not calendar-dependent." Services inflation remains sticky at 3.6% y/y, but goods inflation is back to 1.1% and shelter is finally cooling. The labor market added 164,000 jobs in March, with unemployment holding at 4.1%.
Treasury curve
The 2-year yield dropped 11bp to 3.82%; the 10-year fell 8bp to 4.03%. The curve is no longer inverted — a signal the market thinks the easing cycle is real.
Savers
High-yield savings accounts and CDs will edge lower as banks price in the cut path. Marcus is still at 4.20% APY, but 5-year CDs have already fallen 25bp in the past month. If you want to lock a rate, this week is better than next month.
Bottom line
If you're buying a home this spring, don't wait for the cut — lock when the rate hits your budget. Rates at these levels are already $200-$300/month cheaper than 2024 peaks for a median-price home.